I Will Never Own a Self-Driving Car (and Neither Will You)
Self-Driving Cars: Why you will NEVER buy one…
There’s been a lot of talk and press lately about the coming revolution known as the autonomous drive vehicle (a.k.a. self-driving car). It’s coming. You cannot stop it. Despite your personal feelings, we will have more than a few self-driving cars on the road in the next 5-6 years. More importantly, in about 10 years, self-driving cars will likely be as ubiquitous in some cities (think Manhattan) as taxis.
Now that we got that out of the way, it’s important to also understand you and I will probably never buy a self-driving car.
In my opinion, there’s no use debating the merits or certainness of autonomous vehicles: they will be an improvement over today’s alternatives; they are coming and there is really nothing you can do about it. To me, quibbling about self-driving cars today would be like debating the pros and cons of the Internet in the early 1990s in some lame attempt to sway public opinion against going online.
You don’t have to be in favor of autonomous vehicles to see this, but it does help.
The autonomous vehicle naysayers are pretty funny to me. Kind of like my Mom in 1985 when she asked, “Why would anyone ever have a computer in their home?” Or in 1995 when she wondered aloud, “Why would anyone want to buy a book over the internet when you can just go to a bookstore?”
The two primary types of detractors today range from those who claim the pleasure of driving is too great to ever give up their Corvette, to those who say they “don’t want machines running the world.” Both of these camps claim they will NEVER buy a self-driving car.
And… they’re right. They will never buy a self-driving car and neither will you.
People Won’t “Own” Self-Driving Cars
The biggest point that naysayers miss when considering the future of autonomous vehicles is that (for the most part) consumers will not own these. If companies like Google and Apple (and a dozen other tech-types) envisioned that the future of these vehicles was a one-time sale, some service business over the years, and then a trade-in on a new one, they would never consider jumping into autonomous vehicle development. The long-term revenue stream and the market share expectations would be too small to attract these behemoths. 
Self-driving cars will be owned by the manufacturer (or, more likely, some subsidiary of the manufacturer). You see, while there is some money to be made in selling a few million cars over ten years, there is exponentially more money to be made in providing the transportation services to perhaps 100 million people over those same ten years.
Yeah… But Why Won’t I Just Buy One Myself and Skip the Middleman?
Simply put: cost.
It will be more than just a few bucks cheaper for you to outsource your transportation needs to a Google or an Apple than it will be to buy an autonomous vehicle, charge it, repair it, insure it and watch it depreciate in your garage while you use it for a couple of hours each day.
Not convinced? Consider a few of the benefits we’ll enjoy with self-driving cars in about 10 years:
- A vehicle will be at your disposal 24/7. The providers of self-driving cars will also provide a service much like Uber does today. They’ll have vehicles stashed throughout your city so that when you order a ride via an app, a car will be at your door in minutes.
- Insurance costs will plummet. There is no doubt that autonomous vehicles are infinitely safer than those driven by humans; but also remember that a fleet owner (like a Google) will enjoy much lower insurance rates per mile driven than any single consumer because of their sheer scale. (Of course, these entities will self-insure – lowering their costs even more.)
- Fewer traffic deaths. This benefit will be both huge and largely unnoticed by consumers. Statisticians, government agencies and insurance companies will notice; though those of us not killed in the accidents that were avoided because of self-driving cars will be clueless. (After all, nothing happened, right?)
- No driver means no labor costs. There are lots of reasons you don’t abandon your car today in favor of using taxis (or even Uber); though the biggest reason is most likely the cost. Why would you spend $50 or more for a quick trip to and from the grocery store when you can drive yourself for less than $15? Well, with an autonomous vehicle (and no driver) your cost will be roughly the same (or less) as driving your own car.
- Vehicle repair costs will be much lower. Beyond the scale of maintaining an enormous fleet of the exact same vehicles (all with interchangeable parts), the autonomous vehicles will be much cheaper to maintain because (A) they will be regularly serviced at prescribed intervals; (B) they will drive themselves to the service facility as soon as there is the potential for an issue; (C) they will always be driven in accordance with manufacturers’ recommendations; (D) they won’t cause accidents; and (E) they will all be electric vehicles with fewer moving parts.
- Cars with a million+ miles on the odometer will become commonplace. Because of the regular maintenance, the self-driving cars in any fleet will routinely log more than a million miles before being replaced. In fact, it’s likely these vehicles will never be fully replaced, just continuously upgraded. Don’t believe me? Think about the airlines like Delta or American. Because of their regular maintenance it is not uncommon for you to be flying in a commercial aircraft built 25 or even 30 years ago. Over the course of its life, a commercial aircraft is likely to log more than 50 million air miles.
Okay, But Where Will They Park, Charge and Repair These Vehicles?
As far as parking and charging, most self-driving cars will use your house (or my house, or my neighbor’s house or your neighbor’s house).
You see, the enormous fleet that a Google might manage needs to be spread throughout the city at all times; and while they will likely build and maintain a number of giant centralized garages for some parking and charging (and all repairs), the need for on-demand service will require that they contract with you and me to allow charging and storing on our driveways.
In both the short and long term, it will be cheaper and more efficient to mount solar panels on the roofs of interested consumers’ homes, add a storage battery and charging station, and then trade some free electricity for the right to park a few self-driving cars on their driveway or in their garage.
Remember: because we no longer own a car, our driveways and garages are pretty much just being wasted anyway, right?
Okay, You Convinced Me. Now, Who Will the Winners and Losers Be?
Well, I’m glad you came around to my side on this. To understand which industries will see the greatest impact from the self-driving car revolution, please read my next post: Self-Driving Cars: The Winners and The Losers.
The Curmudgeon
August 29, 2018 @ 4:44 AM
I agree with the realist. I used to work for a company that had cameras facing the driver and computers pin pointing out location. I had had enough with unskilled drivers attempting to critique my driving, so I quit, as did a dozen more drivers, now the company is losing business because no one wants to work for them and the company with less oversight is picking it up. It’s a beautiful utopian concept you’ve payed out however reality is harsh and accidents will still happen and economics will always favor personal preference and indulgence. Perhaps these engineers should consider shutting the computer off and experiencing a non virtual reality.
Self-Driven Realist
July 9, 2017 @ 2:07 PM
There is no way in hell a self-driving piece of shit is going to be more efficient at getting me from point A to point B. PERIOD. Not to mention it would take a ridiculous amount of time just to get anywhere! As if people just have all the time in the world to wait for some piece of shit computer-driven hunk of garbage to take more than TWICE the amount of time it takes a human being to get to the exact same destination.
The only reason mega shits like Google and Apple are attempting to drive this idea down our throats is simply for one reason and one reason only……CONTROL. Just another step for the globalists in their agenda.
I will continue to drive my own damn self wherever damn well please whenever I damn well please. Don’t like it, well TOO FUCKING BAD! Humans have been driving cars for far too long for some piece of shit control driven agenda like this to permeate an otherwise PERFECTLY working system. And is anyone really dumb enough to believe that autonomous vehicles would really “eliminate”, totally and completely, all accidents from the roadway?! Let me tell you now you fools, YOU’RE LIVING A LIE IF YOU DO!
FUCK AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES!!!
TheManager
July 9, 2017 @ 2:36 PM
Normally, I would not approve such a vulgar and nonsensical comment on my blog; but if you replace anything this “realist” wrote about autonomous vehicles with simply “vehicles,” you’ll get an argument very similar to the horse-and-buggy-loving-naysayers from over 100 years ago.
In other words, the opinion is just too precious not to post.
Jon
October 31, 2017 @ 10:30 AM
Just because the argument was made 100 years ago doesn’t mean it wasn’t a logical fear then or now, and you completely grazed over his point about control, if Google already throttles internet services bc of government demands why not throttle cars unknowingly.
Also thanks for the interesting article and prediction.
Ken
January 24, 2017 @ 9:44 AM
The on demand model has one large challenge, peak demand. Demand peaks at rush hour and after bars close etc. To have enough self-driving vehicles to effetely serve peak demand without long wait times means a majority of them would sit idle in off peak periods. To recoup the vehicle purchase and maintenance costs in that model you have to charge a relatively high fare. Right now people don’t sell their cars and just take taxis because they are an order of magnitude more expensive to use over a personal car.
I don’t see business model that will allow a fleet of self-driving vehicles to be equally available and less expensive than a personal car. It would only make sense for occasional trips much as we use taxis now. That wound replace
Al
October 6, 2020 @ 5:39 PM
Hey the only time I ever get in a normal cab is on a Saturday when I go for a beer. I would not use one other wise. I drive my self. I would never buy or drive in a self driving car. Look how many computer reboots happen and update and glitches and other computer problems. So I would walk away from a car that had a self driving option and would not get into a driver less cab, ever I’ll keep on driving my suv 4×4. Non electric
Emily
September 18, 2016 @ 8:42 PM
I may buy a self driving car, but I’m not going to be using one as taxi service.
I enjoy knowing that there are no strange body fluids on my car seat. I am responsible for arriving at my job so I would not be depending on public transit.
It doesn’t matter what points you list, some people what ownership. Those are the same people that don’t use the subways, taxis or bus stations now. When I go on vacation, I fly then rent a car. No taxis.
Anise Leinen
August 18, 2016 @ 6:14 PM
There’s another issue that hasn’t been brought up: this could give people with low vision the ability to drive again. Most people who are legally blind or close to it do have some vision, often enough to live independently, read, get around, etc.. they just can’t quite pass a driver’s test. That group is skyrocketing daily because of the aging population (although there are a lot of younger people with vision problems too!) A self-driving car could be an absolute godsend.
Nathan Henry
June 18, 2016 @ 5:49 PM
My primary counter point is, what about epilepsy, and those who suffer it like me who have no dream of driving. While ordering a ride from an app sounds like a great shoe in for people that need a right that second and can’t get to a bus soon enough so they would use the autonomous car cabbie. However, other people could really do with this vehicle as it aligns with their disability that keeps them from being street legal. If the car ever needs repair? Simple, use the local transport service like a bus or the autonomous car. Am I saying the medical industry will put their hands in these cars? While the idea of getting a discount for having seizures sounds nice, I highly doubt it. That said, even if the price is high, with Ford getting in the game and sticking to their usual theme of being affordable with performance as had been established since Ford’s great car race [ http://www.motorsport.com/automotive/news/the-great-races-henry-ford-s-victory-in-1901/ ] so even if the Google Level 4 is too expensive, there will be others.
Gary West
June 13, 2016 @ 3:25 PM
Cameras both interior and exterior will record all vehicle events. Cars can operate in constant transportation loops, only going to a maintenance yard for fuel and cleaning. Cars will be segregated to non smoking, no pets, etc. Sensors can halt a car if a rule isnt followed.
At some point it will become illegal to interfere with the operation of any motor vehicle as accidents are caused already nearly exclusively by human error. Mechanical failure accidents are extremely rare today and will be less when fleets are properly maintained.
As fewer and fewer human error appears on roadways, speeds will increase. Communication between vehicles will allow smooth transitions, ending congestion, accidents, gridlock, shortening commute times. Commute time will be used to avail oneself of personal computets, etc.
Today’s technology can take cars off paved roads uite easily. The first test tracks were desert roads near Las Vegas, NV.
No downsides, none. That’s why they will take off like a raging wilddire.
Frederic Feller
April 15, 2016 @ 4:36 AM
Even if traffic jams can be a source of frustration, I cannot see myself in a car that takes the most idiotic routes to get to destination, a very slow car especially when in a hurry, a car that stops even before the light turns to orange, a car where someone else has just sat in and ate something smelly or messy, a car in which you look like a parcel being delivered, an ugly looking car, a car in which you will be hustled with advertisement during the ride, a car in which you cannot leave anything inside, a car that will have its fails and will require rebooting like our computers, … I just can’t wait to see them on the street and zigzag between them with my manual human driven car and see them all brake and lose it !
Steven
April 6, 2016 @ 11:51 PM
You bring up a lot of good points, but I have a few counter-points to make.
1. Cars will not be stored in our driveways. Why? Because the manufactures need to have the cars checked by an employee after every use. If a car turns up vandalized or with something broken, how else will they be able to find out who was responsible?
I imagine car storage stations will replace gas stations. These will have both employees and machines who check on cars and do their own maintenance and charging. Yes, it means people will have to wait a few extra minutes for their car to arrive, but it’s worth it in the long run.
2. Having a self-driving car does not mean you give up the pleasure of driving. Every car will be able to turn off autopilot, and have a driver take over. How else would you be able to drive down dirt roads? They may create cars where the driver can’t take over, for people who never obtain driver’s licences, but cars with a disable feature will always be available.
3. Repair costs may not necessarily be lower. They will be for the consumer, since they won’t be the one paying them unless they caused the damage themselves. But for the manufacturers, costs will be high. Yes, there are fewer moving parts, but the parts themselves are more expensive. Can you imagine how many sensors will be on these cars in 20 years? In the event a car does get into an accident, how much will it cost to replace one? To replace eight?
4. Are you sure these cars will be all electric? I doubt the oil companies will want to give up their hold of so much money. They pay the politicians and manufacturers to keep cars at a low fuel-efficiency. It’s been proven; cars exist that get hundreds, even thousands of miles to the gallon. But, since that would destroy the oil industry, the best we’re allowed are hybrids that get 70. Ideally, yes, they would be electric, but I don’t see that happening.